30th July FinNifty Expiry

Hey friends! As you know, today is 29th July, and tomorrow is the expiry day for FinNifty. I’m here to elaborate on the levels for FinNifty. Before we dive in, let me tell you that this analysis might get a bit complicated. The reason is that when we do charting analysis, we need to consider short-term, medium-term, and long-term outlooks. Sometimes these outlooks can show different trends for different time frames. This is exactly what I want to demonstrate with FinNifty levels today.

Let’s start without any delay!

Long-Term Outlook

Looking at the long-term charts, you can see that the market hit a resistance point and then experienced a sharp sell-off. However, it found support and rebounded nicely because it formed a bullish butterfly pattern, leading to a rally from around 22,700-22,800 to almost 800-900 points higher.

Now, considering where we fell from today, it was due to resistance at the previous top and bottom levels. This was also at the 61% Fibonacci retracement level, which is known as the golden ratio, a typical profit-taking zone in the market.

Key Points:

• Resistance Point: Sharp sell-off observed.
• Support and Rebound: Formed a bullish butterfly pattern.
• Golden Ratio: 61% Fibonacci retracement, a typical profit-taking zone.

A double resistance was evident, along with a strong pattern known as the bump and run reversal shape. If we break out from this pattern, we could move towards higher levels, possibly above 24,000.

However, until the market breaks this level, we shouldn’t consider short positions. A breakout would indicate a potential move towards 24,000+ levels.

Intraday Levels

Now, let’s move to the intraday levels and see the developments.

On the intraday charts, a bearish shark pattern was delivered, which broke at 23 and targeted around 50. These targets were achieved, and now a new pattern, the 5-0 pattern, has developed. This pattern is bullish, indicating that reaching 50 could lead to a rally on the higher side if we hold this level.

Key Points:

• Bearish Shark Pattern: Delivered and completed.
• Bullish 5-0 Pattern: Potential rally if 50 is held.

Possible Scenarios:

• If We Hold 50: Potential move towards higher levels.
• If We Break Today’s Low (around 24,260-250): Possible support at 23,370.

If the market holds this level and moves up, we could see a strong possibility of moving towards 24,000. Conversely, if we break today’s low and trade below it, the market might move towards 23,000.

Technical Analysis and Option Table Correlation

To correlate our technical analysis with the option table:

• Put-Call Ratio: Currently at 0.7. A ratio below 0.7 indicates increased bearishness due to higher call writing.
• Highest Open Interest: Visible at 24,000, indicating that the market might see this level as a strong resistance.
• Support Levels: Significant put writing at 23,300, showing strong support. Next support level is at 23,000.

Key Points:

• Put-Call Ratio: 0.7, indicating bearishness.
• Resistance Levels: 24,000 (highest open interest).
• Support Levels: 23,300 and 23,000.

Strategy and Outlook

For tomorrow’s FinNifty expiry, here are the levels to watch out for:

• If Trading Above 23,300: Look for potential targets towards 23,500 or higher.
• If Trading Below 23,300: Watch for support around 23,000.

Summary:

• Long-Term Outlook: Bullish if we break out from the bump and run reversal shape.
• Intraday Levels: Hold above 50 for a potential rally.
• Option Table Correlation: Watch the put-call ratio and highest open interest levels.

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